Forecast Discussion for Suntree and vicinity from the NWS in Melbourne, Florida
Forecast Discussion for MLB NWS Office
000
FXUS62 KMLB 301340
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010
.DISCUSSION...
...HOT WITH HIGHER STORM COVERAGE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS EXPECTED...
TODAY...MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN
YESTERDAY. GPS ESTIMATES ACTUALLY SHOW VALUES 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES
HIGHER FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH. TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN QUITE WARM
THOUGH WHICH WILL KEEP SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE FROM BEING HIGH (AROUND
40 PERCENT).
ANOTHER NOTABLE CHANGE IS THAT WESTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED IN THE
LOW LEVELS DUE TO SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING INTO GEORGIA. THIS WILL
PROMOTE EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTION SHOULD
PROPAGATE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA. NORMALLY THIS LEADS TO
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...
PROVIDED THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. THE MET MOS SHOWS
NO SEA BREEZE BUT THE MAV MOS AND LOCAL WRF BOTH SHOW THE BOUNDARY
PUSHING INLAND. WITH HIGHER MOISTURE...EXPECT THAT THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING NEAR THE COAST...WHICH
WOULD PUSH THE BOUNDARY INLAND PAST I-95.
LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60
MPH. WITH ANY BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL COME THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING -
PERHAPS LOTS OF IT - WHICH COULD SPARK ADDITIONAL FIRES.
FINALLY...HIGH INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN DUE TO DEEP LAYER WARMER THAN
NORMAL AIR OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS EAST COAST CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OCCURRING 18-19Z...WHICH WOULD KICK THE BOUNDARY INLAND.
ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION ALONG THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY WILL BE
PROPAGATING INLAND. EXPECT EAST/WEST COAST BOUNDARY COLLISION WILL
OCCUR ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS...BUT PROBABLY A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
THAN YESTERDAY. HENCE...THE PREVIOUS TAFS DID NOT INCLUDE TEMPO
TSRA GROUPS FOR THE INTERIOR SITES. EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OR
HEAVY RAINFALL TO IMPACT ALL THE TERMINALS TODAY...AND WHERE THE
EAST/WEST BOUNDARY COLLISION OCCURS...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING.
&&
.MARINE...WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY WITH BENIGN
CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST AND ONLY 2 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE...
THOUGH WITH A SHORT WAVE PERIOD AROUND 4-5 SECONDS. A FEW STORMS
THAT FORM ALONG THE MAINLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND MAY
IMPACT THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH NO LOW RH VALUES HAVE OCCURRED...ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SPARKED SEVERAL BRUSH FIRES.
THIS HAS BEEN MOST PREVALENT ALONG THE COAST WHERE WET SEASON
RAINFALL IS RUNNING MUCH BELOW NORMAL AND TEMPS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
THOUGH A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY...
LITTLE/NO STORM MOVEMENT COULD RESULT IN LIGHTNING STRIKE FIRES
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD PROMOTE FIRE
SPREAD.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRI JULY 30:
DAYTONA BEACH 99 1930
ORLANDO 100 1961
MELBOURNE 97 1987
VERO BEACH 96 1999
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
LASCODY
NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion
