Forecast Discussion for Suntree and vicinity from the NWS in
Melbourne, Florida
Forecast Discussion for MLB NWS Office
000
FXUS62 KMLB 222017
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
317 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012
.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON-THURSDAY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF WATERS
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE BIG BEND REGION. MAIN FOCUS FOR
RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE VORT MAX IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING SO LOCAL RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
LOW DUE TO LACK OF FORCING. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION THOUGH AND LOW STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES SO FAR
TODAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED GRADIENT WINDS WILL PICK UP BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING SOUTH...WINDS WILL
STILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A MILD
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 15 DEGREES SUGGEST SOME MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE AIR
MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND CONSIDERABLE SURFACE HEATING IS
EXPECTED.
BREEZY...WELL MIXED DAYS WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT USUALLY DO NOT
PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR SO WILL NOT GO WITH THE SMALL
POPS THAT MOS HAS ON FRI. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FRI NIGHT
THOUGH AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOISTURE PUSHES THROUGH.
SAT-TUE (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...GFS SHOWS A DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS
BUILDS INTO THE AREA SAT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
FLOW VEERS QUICKLY ONSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS TO THE CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWS SOME OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING SUNDAY WHICH
GENERATES SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS
(VOLUSIA/LAKE/SEMINOLE/ ORANGE). WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF
AND KEEP SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK PLACING US IN THE WARM SECTOR MON-TUE WITH SE-S FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WED. GFS SHOWS
AN INCREASE IN PRECIP WATER WITH DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN MON-TUE
BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS NOT NEARLY SO BULLISH KEEPING SIGNIFICANT
RAIN CHANCES TO OUR NORTH. SO WILL LEAN ON ITS SOLUTION THIS
FORECAST CYCLE AND DRAW A SILENT 10 POP BOTH DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA ESPECIALLY NORTH AND INLAND OF VRB. CIGS WILL LOWER DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN
WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON-THU...SEAS DECREASING AS LONG PERIOD SWELL
RETREATS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL PICK UP THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KTS
GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS BY LATER TONIGHT WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING ON THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS.
FRI...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AND OVER LAND DURING DAYTIME HEATING.
SAT...GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
SUN-MON...WINDS WILL SWING TO THE EAST AND SHOULD EASE SLIGHTLY
BUT STILL BE AT LEAST 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE CHOPPY SHORT
PERIOD WAVES AND KEEP BOATING CONDITIONS POOR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COUPLE PERIODS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES/LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS
EXPECTED...THE FIRST TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE OTHER FRI
NIGHT. MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST ABOVE 40 PERCENT DESPITE WARM
TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
BOTH DAYS SO CONTROL OF WILDFIRES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WORSEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS
FORECAST SAT BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL START TO MODERATE THE DRY AIR SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STAY
BREEZY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 65 81 64 85 / 40 10 10 10
MCO 63 82 62 87 / 30 10 10 10
MLB 64 83 65 86 / 20 10 10 10
VRB 61 83 63 86 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 64 82 64 86 / 40 10 10 10
SFB 64 82 63 86 / 40 10 10 10
ORL 64 82 65 86 / 30 10 10 10
FPR 61 83 62 85 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BOWEN
LONG TERM....LASCODY
NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion
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